MODELLING THE DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS OF AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE DEVELOPMENT POLICY EVALUATION MODEL (DEVPEM)

The purpose of the Development Policy Evaluation Model (DEVPEM) is to provide an appropriate modelling structure for analysing the welfare and distributional implications of alternative agricultural policies in developing countries. The aim of the model is to provide illustrative results that show how structural diversity among developing countries, and systemic differences from developed OECD countries, can affect the outcomes of alternative policy interventions. The model is relatively stylised, seeking to capture, as simply as possible, four critical aspects of rural economies in developing countries that are important when evaluating the impacts of agricultural and trade policies. These are: (1). The role of the household as both a producer and a consumer of food crops. (2). High transaction costs of participating in markets, resulting in a subsistence sector that often is important in terms of the number of households and the amount of food production it encompasses. (3). Market linkages that can transmit impacts of policy and market shocks among heterogeneous rural producers and consumers, particularly via factor markets (for labour, land or capital, when those markets exist). (4). The imperfect convertibility of land from one use to another.International Relations/Trade,

The Best of Times, the Worst of Times: Understanding Pro-cyclical Mortality

A growing literature documents cyclical movements in mortality and health. We examine this pattern more closely and attempt to identify the mechanisms behind it. Specifically, we distinguish between mechanisms that rely on fluctuations in own employment or time use and those involving factors that are external to the individual. Our investigation suggests that changes in individuals’ own behavior contribute very little to pro-cyclical mortality. Looking across broad age and gender groups, we find that own-group employment rates are not systematically related to own-group mortality. In addition, we find that most of the additional deaths that occur during times of economic growth are among the elderly, particularly elderly women, who have limited labor force attachment. Focusing on mortality among the elderly, we show that cyclicality is especially strong for deaths occurring in nursing homes, and is stronger in states where a higher fraction of the elderly reside in nursing homes. We also demonstrate that staffing in skilled nursing facilities moves counter-cyclically. Taken together, these findings suggest that cyclical fluctuations in the mortality rate may be largely driven by fluctuations in the quality of health care.

República Dominicana: Posibles efectos de la liberalización comercial en los hogares rurales, a partir de un modelo desagregado para la economía rural, con énfasis en la pobreza, el género y la migración

El objetivo de este estudio es analizar los posibles impactos de la apertura comercial en los hogares rurales dominicanos. El análisis de impactos económicos se realizó utilizando un modelo de equilibrio general aplicado (MEGA) que captura los efectos directos e indirectos de cambios de política comercial en variables críticas que afectan la toma de decisiones en los hogares rurales. Dichas variables incluyeron producción, ingreso, empleo, cambio tecnológico, precios y migración. El análisis realizado concluye que dicha apertura traerá mayores beneficios de lo anticipado a los hogares rurales más vulnerables, siempre y cuando las reducciones en los precios de los productos básicos de consumo que se esperan como resultado de la liberación, lleguen al consumidor final y se acompañen de medidas que estimulen el ajuste productivo hacia actividades de mayor valor agregado.Desarrollo rural, Acuerdos comerciales, Pobreza, Migración y migrantes, Mujeres, acuerdos comerciales, población rural

Give a man a fishpond: Modeling the impacts of aquaculture in the rural economy

The rapid growth of fish farming over the past three decades has generated heated debate over the role of aquaculture in rural development and poverty reduction. Central to these debates is the question of whether and how aquaculture impacts local incomes and employment, yet little empirical evidence exists on the issue. To address this question, we propose a Local Economy-wide Impact Evaluation (LEWIE) model which nests fish farm models within a general-equilibrium model of their local economy. The model is calibrated using primary data collected from 1102 households in Myanmar’s main aquaculture zone, representative of 60% of the country’s aquaculture farms. Using this model, we examine the impact of aquaculture on the incomes and labor market outcomes of fish farming households, but also crop farms and non-farm households in the cluster. Simulating one-acre increases in pond/plot surface we find that: (1) aquaculture generates much higher incomes per-acre than agriculture; (2) aquaculture generates larger income spillovers than agriculture for non-farm households by way of retail and labor markets; (3) small commercial fish farms generate greater spillovers than large fish farms. These results bolster the notion that fish-farming, and in particular small-scale commercial aquaculture, may have a significant role to play in rural development and poverty reduction.PRIFPRI3; IFPRIOA; ISI; Feed the Future Innovation Laboratory for Food Security Policy (FSP); CRP2DSGD; PIM18 pagesCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM

CAFTA and the rural Dominican Republic

PRIFPRI3; ISIEPT

Simulating gendered impacts of a saffron boom and bust in rural Morocco

Non-PRIFPRI5DSG

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Agricultural mechanization in the dry zone

This research highlight evaluates the extent of agricultural mechanization in four townships in Myanmar’s Dry Zone. It provides evidence that rapid mechanization is underway. Mechanical land preparation is now commonplace, due to thriving machine rental markets, falling equipment prices, and better financing options. The mechanization of harvesting and threshing is also occurring, but is concentrated in rice. These findings suggest that Dry Zone agriculture is at a technological crossroads.Non-PRIFPRI5; Feed the Future Innovation Laboratory for Food Security Policy (FSP)DSG